Why Home Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections

Historically, home sales tend to rise following presidential elections, as market uncertainty lessens and consumer confidence improves. Buyers and sellers who were hesitant before the election often re-enter the market, fueling demand. This post-election boost is beneficial for the housing industry, providing opportunities for those ready to buy or sell. Understanding these trends can help buyers, sellers, and realtors make informed decisions in the post-election landscape.

 

With the 2024 Presidential election fast approaching, you might be wondering what impact, if any, it’s having on the housing market. Let’s break it down.

Election Years Bring a Temporary Slowdown

In any given year, home sales slow down slightly in the fall. It’s a typical, seasonal trend. However, according to data from BTIG, in election years there’s usually a slightly larger dip in home sales in the month leading up to Election Day (see graph below):

Why? Uncertainty. Many consumers hold off on making major decisions or purchases while they wait to see how the election will play out. It’s a pattern that’s shown up time and time again, and it’s particularly apparent for buyers and sellers in the housing market.

This year is no different. A recent survey from Redfin found that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers said they’re waiting until after the election to buy. That’s nearly a quarter of first-time buyers hitting the pause button, likely due to the same feelings of uncertainty.

Home Sales Bounce Back After the Election

The good news is these delayed sales aren’t lost forever—they’re just postponed. History shows sales tend to rebound after the election is over. In fact, home sales have actually increased 82% of the time in the year after the election (see chart below):

That’s because once the election dust settles, buyers and sellers have a sense of what’s ahead and generally feel more confident moving forward with their decisions. And that leads to a boost in home sales.

What To Expect in 2025

If history is any indicator, that means more homes will sell next year. And based on the latest forecasts, that’s exactly what you should expect. As the graph below shows, the housing market is on pace to sell a total of 4.6 million homes this year, and projections are for 5.2 million total sales next year (see graph below):

And that aligns with the typical pattern of post-election rebounds.

So, while it might feel like the market is slowing down right now, it’s more of a temporary dip rather than a long-term trend. As has been the case before, once the election uncertainty passes, buyers and sellers will return to the market.

Bottom Line

It’s important to remember that while election years often bring a short-term slowdown in the housing market, the pause is usually temporary. Those sales are not lost. Data shows home sales typically increase the year after a Presidential election, and current forecasts indicate 2025 will be no different. If you’re waiting for a clearer picture before making a move, just know that the market is expected to pick up speed in the months ahead.

If you have any questions about how these trends might impact your plans, let’s connect. That way you’ve got someone to help you navigate the market and make the most of the opportunities ahead.

Michael Mahoney
617-615-9435
mike@mmahoney.com
MA. License #9051300
Real Broker LLC License #423031

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I am Michael Mahoney, a full time Realtor in Greater Boston focused on Norfolk & Suffolk Counties. I have been helping people fulfill the “American Dream” through home ownership, real estate wealth building, and real estate investment for over 2 decades.

My goal is to help people “go from the life they have to the life they dream about” using real estate as means to build wealth and financial security. If you want to make a change, I help people go from the “what if” to the “what is”.

I work in all price points. The majority of my business is repeat clients and the referral of clients from all over Eastern Massachusetts.

I view my role as the advisor who helps people go from the life they have to the life they dream about. I help people go from the “what if” to the “what is”

I have sold everything from mobile homes to amazing estates. I have sold hundreds of homes, multi families and condos in almost every town in Suffolk and Norfolk County. I also sell homes in Plymouth, Bristol and Middlesex Counties. When asked what my specialty is, I often joke and say “from section eights to great estates”.

There is no property too small or too large in the residential space that I would shy away from.

All of my personal sales and marketing endeavors are supported by top-of-the-line personal market research completed carefully with expertise in order to create strategically targeted marketing collateral and campaigns for clients. I personally have a stand by commitment of 7-days a week for my clients. I aim to cultivate my own reputation for quality, professionalism and your results.

From selling hundreds of homes in Greater Boston comes experience and situational awareness that can only be developed over time which is a tremendous value to clients.