How the Economy Impacts Mortgage Rates
As someone who’s thinking about buying or selling a home, you’re probably paying close attention to mortgage rates – and wondering what’s ahead.
One thing that can affect mortgage rates is the Federal Funds Rate, which influences how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. While the Federal Reserve (the Fed) doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, they do control the Federal Funds Rate.
The relationship between the two is why people have been watching closely to see when the Fed might lower the Federal Funds Rate. Whenever they do, that’ll put downward pressure on mortgage rates. The Fed meets next week, and three of the most important metrics they’ll look at as they make their decision are:
- The Rate of Inflation
- How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding
- The Unemployment Rate
Here’s the latest data on all three.
1. The Rate of Inflation
You’ve probably heard a lot about inflation over the past year or two – and you’ve likely felt it whenever you’ve gone to buy just about anything. That’s because high inflation means prices have been going up quickly.
The Fed has stated its goal is to get the rate of inflation back down to 2%. Right now, it’s still higher than that, but moving in the right direction (see graph below):
2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding
The Fed is also watching how many new jobs are created each month. They want to see job growth slow down consistently before taking any action on the Federal Funds Rate. If fewer jobs are created, it means the economy is still strong but cooling a bit – which is their goal. That appears to be exactly what’s happening now. Inman says:
“. . . the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added fewer jobs in April and May than previously thought and that hiring by private companies was sluggish in June.”
So, while employers are still adding jobs, they’re not adding as many as before. That’s an indicator the economy is slowing down after being overheated for quite some time. This is an encouraging trend for the Fed to see.
3. The Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is the percentage of people who want to work but can’t find jobs. So, a low rate means a lot of Americans are employed. That’s a good thing for many people.
But it can also lead to higher inflation because more people working means more spending – which drives up prices. Right now, the unemployment rate is low, but it’s been rising slowly over the past few months (see graph below):
It may seem harsh, but a consistently rising unemployment rate is something the Fed needs to see before deciding to cut the Federal Funds Rate. That’s because a higher unemployment rate would mean reduced spending, and that would help get inflation back under control.
What Does This Mean Moving Forward?
While mortgage rates are going to continue to be volatile in the days and months ahead, these are signs the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see. But even with that, it’s unlikely they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate when they meet next week. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, recently said:
“We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy.”
Basically, we’re seeing the first signs now, but they need more data and more time to feel confident that this is a consistent trend. Assuming that direction continues, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, experts say there’s a projected 96.1% chance the Fed will lower the Federal Funds Rate at their September meeting.
Remember, the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. It’s just that whenever they decide to cut the Federal Funds Rate, mortgage rates should respond.
Of course, the timing of when the Fed takes action could change because of new economic reports, world events, and other factors. That’s why it’s usually not a good idea to try to time the market.
Bottom Line
Recent economic data may signal that hope is on the horizon for mortgage rates. Let’s connect so you have an expert to keep you up to date on the latest trends and what they mean for you.
Michael Mahoney
617-615-9435
mike@mmahoney.com
MA. License #9051300
Real Broker LLC License #423031
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I am Michael Mahoney, a full time Realtor in Greater Boston focused on Norfolk & Suffolk Counties. I have been helping people fulfill the “American Dream” through home ownership, real estate wealth building, and real estate investment for over 2 decades.
My goal is to help people “go from the life they have to the life they dream about” using real estate as means to build wealth and financial security. If you want to make a change, I help people go from the “what if” to the “what is”.
I work in all price points. The majority of my business is repeat clients and the referral of clients from all over Eastern Massachusetts.
I view my role as the advisor who helps people go from the life they have to the life they dream about. I help people go from the “what if” to the “what is”
I have sold everything from mobile homes to amazing estates. I have sold hundreds of homes, multi families and condos in almost every town in Suffolk and Norfolk County. I also sell homes in Plymouth, Bristol and Middlesex Counties. When asked what my specialty is, I often joke and say “from section eights to great estates”.
There is no property too small or too large in the residential space that I would shy away from.
All of my personal sales and marketing endeavors are supported by top-of-the-line personal market research completed carefully with expertise in order to create strategically targeted marketing collateral and campaigns for clients. I personally have a stand by commitment of 7-days a week for my clients. I aim to cultivate my own reputation for quality, professionalism and your results.
From selling hundreds of homes in Greater Boston comes experience and situational awareness that can only be developed over time which is a tremendous value to clients.