Do Elections Impact the Housing Market?

The 2024 Presidential election is just months away. As someone who’s thinking about potentially buying or selling a home, you’re probably curious about what effect, if any, elections have on the housing market.

It’s a great question because buying or selling a home is a major decision, and it’s natural to wonder how such a major event might impact your plans.

Historically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. Here’s the latest on exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates throughout those time periods.

Home Sales

During the month of November, in years when the Presidential election takes place, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, explains:

“Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal.”

This is mostly because some people feel uncertain and hesitant about making big decisions during such a pivotal time. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is temporary. Historically, home sales bounce back in December and continue to rise the following year.

In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after nine of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the next year (see graph below): 

The graph shows annual home sales going back to 1978. Each year with a Presidential election is noted in blue. The year immediately after each election is green if existing home sales rose that year. The two orange bars represent the only years when home sales decreased after an election.

 

Home Prices

What about home prices? Do they drop during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist puts it:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices are pretty resilient. They generally rise year-over-year, regardless of elections. The latest data from NAR shows after seven of the last eight Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see graph below): 

Just like the previous graph, this shows election years in blue. The only year when prices declined after an election is in orange. That was during the housing market crash, which was far from a typical year. Today’s market is different than it was back then.

All the green bars represent when prices rose the following year. So, if you’re worried about your home losing value because of an election, you can rest easy knowing prices rise after most Presidential elections.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are important because they affect how much your monthly payment will be when you buy a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in eight of them (see chart below): 

Most forecasts expect mortgage rates to ease slightly throughout the remainder of the year. If they’re right, this year will follow the trend of declining rates leading up to most previous elections. And if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be good news, as lower rates could mean a lower monthly payment.

What This Means for You

So, what’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually small and temporary. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.

Bottom Line

While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. For help navigating the market, election year or not, let’s connect.

 

Michael Mahoney
617-615-9435
mike@mmahoney.com
MA. License #9051300
Real Broker LLC License #423031

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I am Michael Mahoney, a full time Realtor in Greater Boston focused on Norfolk & Suffolk Counties. I have been helping people fulfill the “American Dream” through home ownership, real estate wealth building, and real estate investment for over 2 decades.

My goal is to help people “go from the life they have to the life they dream about” using real estate as means to build wealth and financial security. If you want to make a change, I help people go from the “what if” to the “what is”.

I work in all price points. The majority of my business is repeat clients and the referral of clients from all over Eastern Massachusetts.

I view my role as the advisor who helps people go from the life they have to the life they dream about. I help people go from the “what if” to the “what is”

I have sold everything from mobile homes to amazing estates. I have sold hundreds of homes, multi families and condos in almost every town in Suffolk and Norfolk County. I also sell homes in Plymouth, Bristol and Middlesex Counties. When asked what my specialty is, I often joke and say “from section eights to great estates”.

There is no property too small or too large in the residential space that I would shy away from.

All of my personal sales and marketing endeavors are supported by top-of-the-line personal market research completed carefully with expertise in order to create strategically targeted marketing collateral and campaigns for clients. I personally have a stand by commitment of 7-days a week for my clients. I aim to cultivate my own reputation for quality, professionalism and your results.

From selling hundreds of homes in Greater Boston comes experience and situational awareness that can only be developed over time which is a tremendous value to clients.